A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the âimpossible.â
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, âOn Robustness and Fragility,â which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark bookâitself a black swan.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
âThe most prophetic voice of all.ââGQ
Praise for The Black Swan
â[A book] that altered modern thinking.ââThe Times (London)
âA masterpiece.ââChris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail
âIdiosyncratically brilliant.ââNiall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
âThe Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.ââDaniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
â[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.ââThe Wall Street Journal
âHugely enjoyableâcompelling . . . easy to dip into.ââFinancial Times
âEngaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.ââThe New York Times Book Review